The Expansion of the World's Four Silicon Wafer Factories Has Led to a Sharp Increase in the Product

The alarm bell of the global semiconductor industry is ringing, and the previously extremely tight raw material "wafer" is afraid to change from the "Pearl of the palm" to the "prisoner" of everyone. Recently, globegroup wafer announced to spend US $428 million to expand its 12 inch production line, and it is reported that the other three silicon wafer factories, silonic AG, sumco and Xinyue, are also expanding their production under the table, which will lead to a sharp increase in the production capacity of 12 inch silicon wafers. TSMC and other major customers have sharpened their swords and are ready to make a big bargain to double the price increase previously opened by the lion!

In 2018, the global boom situation was treacherous, and the semiconductor boom changed even more. Originally, the market thought that there would be another 8-inch factory with tight supply for two years. Unexpectedly, it "loosened" from the fourth quarter, and the capacity utilization rate fell from 100% for the first time. In addition, the 12 inch plant that has not been fully loaded in 2018 reports that the overall capacity utilization rate will decline further in the first quarter of next year.

(source: MIT Technology Review)

The industry believes that the demand of the semiconductor industry will further decline in the first quarter of 2019. On the one hand, it will enter the traditional off-season, and the terminal demand with no obvious benefit in the original peak season will continue to weaken. On the other hand, the United States will increase the tariff to 25% from the beginning of 2019, and some parts and components will be pulled in advance in the fourth quarter, resulting in further shrinking orders in the first quarter. Multiplied by two factors, The market is not optimistic about the semiconductor boom in the first quarter of 2019.

The demand for chips has weakened. The raw material "silicon wafer silicon wafer", which was extremely out of stock for two or two years, has recently seen a phenomenon that suppliers have been expanding production on and off the table. This is because the industry is worried that the production capacity of silicon wafer silicon wafer will increase greatly, but at the same time, the chip demand has begun to correct, The price of silicon wafers and wafers is afraid to become the target of customers, so they have tried to expand production and grab money, hoping to make more money before the price falls sharply.

Global wafer recently announced that it will spend US $428 million to expand its Korean plant and add a 12 inch production line. It is estimated that this increase in production will increase the production capacity of 150000 12 inch silicon wafers. It is expected to start sample delivery at the end of the third quarter of 2019 and mass production in 2020.

In addition to global wafers, in fact, the world's three major silicon wafer suppliers, silonic AG, sumco and Xinyue, have also reported that they are expanding the production of 12 inch silicon wafers under the table.

Originally, the global silicon wafer production capacity was about 5.8 million pieces per month, which is expected to increase to 6 million pieces in 2019. However, under the condition of frequent production expansion under the table of various factories, it is reported that the output of 6 million pieces has been reached in advance in the fourth quarter, and will be further expanded in 2019, which will lead to a significant increase in the global silicon wafer production capacity.

According to the industry, customers of semiconductor manufacturers such as TSMC have sharpened their knives and are ready to slash the price of silicon wafers. The main reason is that the supply of silicon wafers has been extremely tight in the past two years. These semiconductor customers bear the pressure of huge price increases of silicon wafers every quarter and are in a very strong seller's market.

But things are different now. In the future, the silicon wafer production capacity is about to increase greatly. Coupled with the weakening demand, semiconductor customers have planned to cut back the parts previously raised in price step by step. Under this tug of war between suppliers and customers, the relationship between them is becoming more and more evenly matched.

However, the upstream silicon wafer factories will not wait to die. The way to cope is to try to transfer the production capacity to domestic semiconductor customers, because many domestic semiconductor manufacturing new production capacity is about to open and there is an urgent need to test silicon wafers. This part of the demand may be supported for a period of time, but when the demand peak is over and the new semiconductor factories in the mainland have finished pulling goods, if the global semiconductor boom has not yet recovered, The supply and demand of the overall silicon wafer market will be even worse.

Source: deeptech deep technology Lian Yuhui